S-Group & Kesko with bigger combined share online than offline

The combined share of Kesko and S-Group in Finnish is high, with over 82% of the market being transacted in two chains. For the online channel, the two market leaders have an even more significant share of the nascent market: 84,5%.

Despite the dominance, the online market shares changed quite significantly in 2022.

In 2021 the combined online market shares of Kesko and S-Group were a whopping 87,7%. Thus, the combined market share has declined by 3,2% points.

That decline has come from Kesko’s market share as S-Group increased its market share and grabbed the market leadership with 43%. In the meantime, Kesko lost market share by 4%-points, dropping the share to 41,5%. Despite the decline, Kesko still has a significantly higher online market share than offline (41,5% vs 35,2%).

Besides S-Group growth, the most significant change from 2021 was the launch of Oda in early 2022.

Oda’s market share is an estimate based on, among other things, the recent launches of Picnic in Germany (and later in France) and Rohlik in Germany (with the brand Knuspr). Both companies ended up with around 23 million € revenues in their respective geographies, comparable to the Helsinki region (Düsseldorf region for Picnic and Munich region for Knuspr). There are indications that Oda revenues would land somewhere close to that ballpark. Thus, a 4-5% market share would give the company revenues between 20-30 million €.

Oda has grown to become the biggest challenger in the online grocery market. Regarding other challengers, Fiksuruoka seems to have maintained its revenue levels in Finland, whereas Ruokaboksi appears to have seen some decline. They would end up with around 3,5% market share. That would put them in the same ballpark as Oda but as the second biggest challenger due to the somewhat decreasing revenues from 2021. Oda most probably continues to grow as the company has expanded its service into other major cities in Finland, Tampere and Turku.

Oda's 4-5% market share paints a skewed picture as the company operates only in the Helsinki region. Thus, Oda’s market share would be significantly bigger for the Helsinki region. When looking into the home delivery market in Helsinki, Oda is probably already approaching Kesko and S-Group.